We believe it is very likely that the Taraia Object in Nikumaroro Lagoon is actually the remains
of the Lockheed Model 10E Electra flown to the island by Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan.
How and why would the aircraft have ended up there instead of in the deep ocean, and how
would it come to appear as it does today?
Many have assumed that the Electra, after it was swept off the Nikumaroro reef by the tide and
waves, moved out to sea and eventually sank in deep water. For this reason, for example, Robert
Ballard in 2019, supported by National Geographic, did a systematic search of the deep waters
around the island, finding no traces of the plane. However, that the plane ended up in the deep
water is not actually a likely scenario, given what we know about the prevailing winds and
currents along the northwestern edge of the island. The location and configuration of the
Tatiman Passage, which is oriented west-east, are most likely a reflection of those prevailing
winds and currents, which tend to push the water from west to east through the Passage and into
the lagoon. Supporting this interpretation is the fact that debris from the Norwich City
shipwreck, which was lifted onto the reef by a storm back in 1929 near the proposed Earhart
landing site, is concentrated along the beaches near the Passage and even on the south (opposite)
shore of the Passage. Thus, it seems most likely that the Electra and debris from it would mostly
have moved southwestward toward the Tatiman Passage and even westward all the way into the
lagoon.
What follows is a proposed narrative and sequence of events that can account for the movement
of much of the Electra into the lagoon, where it became what we refer to today as the Taraia
Object.
Amelia and Fred land on the reef at Nikumororo on July 2, 1937. For five days, they stay close
to the intact plane at Camp Zero on the northwestern shore of the island so they can send out
distress calls from the plane’s radio, hoping for rescue.
After five days, the tide finally rises high enough to prevent further radio broadcasts and floats
the plane away. The plane works its way southeastward, bouncing along on the rocky reef,
driven by the current and the waves. It suffers severe damage from wave action and impact on
the reef, and begins to break up.
First to break off the fuselage are the outer wing sections, then the engines, props, and landing
gear, deposited on the reef or in the deep water or both. One of the landing gear gets stuck in the
reef rock, to become the Bevington Object as photographed in October 1937. This happens very
quickly, perhaps within hours after it begins to float.
Because the extra fuel tank affixed to the airplane cabin floor and the other fuel tanks are mostly
empty of fuel and filled with air, the fuselage section with the tail section still attached, now
more buoyant with the heavier parts removed, becomes an effective float and rides the current
and the winds eastward and southward toward the Tatiman Passage. Movement into the lagoon
would happen most quickly during a rising tide. This is the direction evidenced by the still-visible debris from the Norwich City. Along the way, the contents of the fuselage largely spill
out onto the reef. Some of the contents wash ashore quickly, but much remains amidst the reef
rocks, to wash ashore occasionally during storm events in the years to come.
The breakup and movement of the plane would make it very difficult for the rescue aircraft to
recognize the plane, even if it was within their field of view. Very little of the plane is actually
visible above the water. The tail is still attached, but its attachment to the fuselage has
weakened, and the reef impacts twist the tail section at an acute angle to the fuselage.
Ultimately, the floating fuselage is driven through the Passage by the current and wind, which
push it eastward all the way across the lagoon to the shallow water alongside the Taraia
Peninsula. The clockwise vortex in that embayment moves the fuselage to a position near the
sand spit that projects westward from the end of the peninsula. This movement would take very
little time to run its course, perhaps hours or just several days. It probably happens during the
two days after the last radio message on July 7 and before the arrival of the Navy search planes
on July 9.